For the past few months, I've been neglecting the Sudan community page on Metaculus. I think it's important that I be a more active curator and push the user base's talent towards the most important dimensions of the war: hunger, displacement, and the peace process.

This platform could be a strong complement to the uptick in interest because information gaps (like the lack of data on food security and nutrition outcomes) and disagreement about the scale of need is the sort of uncertainty forecasters can help cut through.

I've spoken to decision makers who feel like they're out on an island and interested people who don't know where to start. I think we can make this a space which helps people build better models of Sudan and supports decision-making with greater transparency, accountability, and accuracy than elsewhere exists.

Two new questions are live on the community page:

1. How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026?

The available numeric inputs are between 8 million and 15 million people.

Closing date: November 30, 2025

Resolution criteria: This question resolves on the most recently published IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix report on the count of Sudan's total internally displaced population as of January 31, 2026. The count includes all internally displaced persons regardless of when displacement occurred (both pre-2023 and post-2023 displacement).

2. Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?

This is a binary YES/NO question.

Closing date: December 30, 2025

Resolution criteria: This question resolves YES if credible media reports or official statements confirm that both SAF and RSF delegations are physically present at the same location simultaneously for peace negotiations before December 31, 2025. Both delegations must be present at the same venue during overlapping time periods (not virtual participation). Any official delegation level qualifies, including military commanders, political representatives, or designated negotiators.

Sources for resolution include, but are not limited to, reports from Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, UN statements, African Union announcements, or official statements from the SAF or RSF.

I would appreciate your feedback and your forecasts.