Sudan faces five concurrent disease epidemics, with cholera spreading fastest. The combination of displacement, armed conflict, flooding, and collapsed infrastructure has created strong conditions for transmission.

With the rainy season near its end and fighting escalating in Kordofan, cholera trajectories become harder to predict than the displacement and peace negotiation questions written previously.

A new question on Metaculus:

How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin?

The available numeric inputs are between 65,000 cases and 300,000 cases (this upper bound is open).

Closing date: September 15, 2025

Resolution criteria: This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of suspected cholera cases reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin published after the May 2025 bulletin. The resolution figure must be clearly stated as cumulative/total suspected cholera cases since the outbreak began (typically counted from July 2024 or the outbreak's official start date as defined by WHO). The count will be taken from the official WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin, available through WHO emergency updates or ReliefWeb Sudan Health Cluster page. If multiple figures are provided (e.g., different time periods), the highest cumulative total will be used.

I would appreciate your feedback and your forecasts.

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Notes:

1. The five diseases are cholera, dengue fever, measles, bacterial dermatitis, and malaria.

2. Previous questions: (1) How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026? Median prediction: 9.83M people. (2) Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025? Forecast: 15.5%.