I have done a poor job of curating the Sudan community page on Metaculus. I was pulled back into humanitarian policy work. But here is something I have been thinking about since October.

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms were front-runners for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. They led Polymarket at 33% through October 9, topped the PRIO Director's shortlist, and won both "alternative Nobels": the Rafto Prize and the Right Livelihood Award. They lost to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

Previous Sudan Questions focused on the scale of suffering. This one is different. It is about international recognition and standing for an important tool that has alleviated a lot of that suffering and can alleviate even more.

I think strong forecasts of ERR Nobel odds are something SAF and RSF leadership should respect. I do not think they have a good sense of what began to happen internationally last year. I do not think they paid appropriate respect to this constituency and to the people doing this work. Now, with Nicholas Kristof's recent coverage and donation drive in the New York Times, and as good a shot as anybody at the Nobel Peace Prize again this year, I hope that better recognition of international buy-in will lead to their better treatment by SAF and RSF.

With the January 31 nomination deadline approaching, I am not seeing ERRs on the 2026 Polymarket list. I would like to see what Metaculus forecasters think.

A new question on Metaculus:

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This is a binary YES/NO question.

Closing date: October 10, 2026, 10:00 UTC

Background: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024. In 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the PRIO Director's shortlist, which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On Polymarket, ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The same year, ERRs received the Rafto Prize for Human Rights and the Right Livelihood Award, both sometimes called "alternative Nobels." Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta. As of January 2026, ERRs do not appear on the 2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market.

Resolution criteria: This question resolves Yes if the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), as published on nobelprize.org. The prize may be shared with other laureates. The question resolves Yes if ERRs are among the named recipients. This question resolves No if the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to any individual or organization that does not include the ERRs.

Fine print: If no Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in 2026, as has occurred 19 times since 1901, the question resolves No. "Emergency Response Rooms" refers to the Sudanese volunteer network also known in Arabic as غرف الاستجابة للطوارئ. If the Committee names a closely related successor organization or coalition that clearly evolved from the ERRs, resolution will be determined by moderator judgment in consultation with the community. The Norwegian Nobel Committee typically announces the Peace Prize on October 10 at 11:00 CET.

I would appreciate your feedback and your forecasts.

Notes:

  1. Previous questions: (1) How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026? (2) Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025? (3) How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin?

  2. PRIO shortlist historical accuracy: 10 of 12 years (83%), 2014 to 2025. The shortlist neither confirms nor endorses candidates. PRIO has no privileged access to the Committee.