North Kordofan is the front I am watching most closely in this war, near term and long. A new question on the Sudan community page asks whether RSF takes El Obeid by each of three dry-season dates.

A new question on Metaculus:

Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid (North Kordofan capital) by each of the following dates?

This is a binary group with three sub-questions:

  1. By 31 October 2026 (early 2026/27 dry season)
  2. By 31 January 2027 (mid 2026/27 dry season)
  3. By 31 March 2027 (end of 2026/27 dry season, pre-rains)

Background: El Obeid is the capital of North Kordofan State and the largest city in the Kordofan region (pre-war population about 500,000). It sits at the western terminus of Sudan Railways and at the junction of the Khartoum-Darfur road network, the principal ground link between SAF central Sudan and RSF Darfur. RSF besieged the city from mid-2023 but never captured it. SAF broke the siege on January 27, 2026, retook Bara on March 6, and launched clearing operations along the Al-Dubeibat-Dilling axis on April 18 to cut RSF and SPLM-N supply lines further south. As of late April 2026 SAF controls El Obeid and most of North Kordofan; RSF is reduced to pockets and a standoff drone-strike threat (nine killed on February 28, seven killed and 22 wounded on April 25). Having consolidated most of Darfur after the fall of El Fasher in late October 2025, RSF has stated its intent to push east through Kordofan and threaten Khartoum again. SAF intends to push west via the Omdurman-El Obeid-El Fasher corridor. El Obeid is the linchpin of both campaigns. If it falls, RSF is at the gates of Khartoum again and a de facto east-west partition of Sudan crystallizes. If SAF holds and pushes west, the war's center of gravity shifts back to Darfur.

Why three dates: Sudan's rainy season runs June through September, with residual rains into early October. Major ground operations concentrate in the November-April dry season because off-road movement collapses during rains. Q1 anchors a checkpoint about a month into the campaign window, Q2 the mid-window check, Q3 the full dry-season risk before the next rains close it again.

Resolution criteria: Each sub-question resolves YES if, by 23:59 Khartoum local time on its stated date, RSF has captured El Obeid as confirmed by all three of the following: at least two Tier-1 wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera English) explicitly reporting that RSF has entered the city and SAF has withdrawn or surrendered; at least one conflict-monitoring source (ACLED, Sudan War Monitor, Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, ISW) recording the territorial-control change; and RSF holding the city for at least 72 consecutive hours. Capture is permanent: once met, that sub-question and all later sub-questions resolve YES even if SAF later retakes the city. A negotiated handover via formal peace agreement does not qualify; drone-strike damage does not constitute capture.

I would appreciate your feedback and your forecasts.

Notes:

  1. Previous questions: (1) How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026? (2) Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025? (3) How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin? (4) Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? (5) Will Burhan and Hemedti be publicly confirmed to have met in person in 2026? (6) Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan-war excess mortality above 200,000?