Forecasting
I manage the Metaculus community page focused on Sudan. Below are the active, closed and resolved questions from the page.
Active
Taking forecasts.
| Closes | Closes in | Question | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 days |
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Why I asked I think they are the favorite. Some wider recognition of that may matter to some degree for how SAF and the RSF treat these high impact actors. |
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| 55 days |
Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid by each of three dry-season dates?
· By 31 October 2026 · By 31 January 2027 · By 31 March 2027 Why I asked I think North Kordofan is extremely important in this war and will matter a lot for SAF's ability to push west toward Darfur, or the RSF's ability to push east toward Khartoum. |
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| 116 days |
Will the next IPC Sudan acute food insecurity analysis classify at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5)?
Why I asked Hunger is the most important problem in Sudan. I am interested in the IPC's work and will be constantly thinking about these classifications. |
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| 116 days |
Will Burhan and Hemedti be publicly confirmed to have met in person in 2026?
Why I asked If these two are in the same room, I would think that we are in the endgame of this war. |
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| 116 days |
Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan-war excess mortality above 200,000?
Why I asked I think this war is a lot worse than people think. There has not been much good work beyond the LSHTM study, and that one only covered Khartoum. I am interested in the research that is coming, and in what it will show. |
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Closed
No longer taking forecasts. Awaiting resolution.
Nothing waiting on a resolving source.
Resolved
| Resolved | Outcome | Question | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 851,427 | How many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt as of 31 August 2026? | numeric | |
| No |
Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?
What happened This was pretty unlikely from start to finish, though an important signal for where we are in the war (the Burhan-Hemedti question is basically this on a longer clock). |
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| 9.33m |
How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026?
What happened I was half a million too high (so was the crowd) because I did not properly price in returns. |
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| 122,108 |
How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin?
What happened I think the case count was more a measure of the health cluster's ability to measure and report during the war. I would write this type of question differently today. |
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