Forecasting
Public questions and predictions on Sudan and other lines of work, with their live community forecasts and resolutions.
Open
May 10, 2026: How many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt as of 31 August 2026?
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· resolves Aug 31, 2026
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #6: Sudanese in Egypt
Jan 22, 2026: Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
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· resolves Oct 10, 2026
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #3: The Nobel Peace Prize
May 3, 2026: Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid by each of three dry-season dates?
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· resolves Oct 31, 2026
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By 31 October 2026
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· Oct 31, 2026
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By 31 January 2027
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· Jan 31, 2027
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By 31 March 2027
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· Mar 31, 2027
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #5: El Obeid
May 17, 2026: Will the next IPC Sudan acute food insecurity analysis classify at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5)?
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· resolves Dec 31, 2026
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #7: Famine classification
Apr 26, 2026: Will Burhan and Hemedti be publicly confirmed to have met in person in 2026?
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· resolves Dec 31, 2026
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #4: Burhan-Hemedti and the death toll
Apr 26, 2026: Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan-war excess mortality above 200,000?
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· resolves Dec 31, 2026
Metaculus →
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Sudan Questions #4: Burhan-Hemedti and the death toll
Closed
