Tracks
This is roughly how I would categorize my writing. Texts can be in more than one track.
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Forecasting 2 texts
Open (5 questions)
- Will the next IPC Sudan acute food insecurity analysis classify at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5)?
- Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid by each of three dry-season dates?
- Will Burhan and Hemedti be publicly confirmed to have met in person in 2026?
- Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan-war excess mortality above 200,000?
- Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Closed (4 questions)
- How many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt as of 31 August 2026?
- How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin?
- How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026?
- Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?