A new numeric question on the Sudan Metaculus community page: how many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt at end-August 2026?
Sudan
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A new binary-group question on the Sudan Metaculus community page: will RSF capture El Obeid by each of three dry-season checkpoints?
Two new questions on the Sudan Metaculus community page: will Burhan and Hemedti meet in 2026, and will any major publication estimate war excess mortality above 200,000 this year?
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms were front-runners for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. A new forecasting question on whether they will win in 2026.
Sudan faces five concurrent disease epidemics, with cholera spreading fastest. A new forecasting question on cumulative suspected cholera cases.
New forecasting questions on Metaculus's Sudan community page aimed at improving decision-making around hunger, displacement, and peace negotiations.
A letter in the Financial Times responding to Hamdok's piece on Sudan. The need is for realistic policy, thoughtfulness, and a politics of delivery.