Sudan Questions #7: Famine classification
[forecasting] [sudan]No area in Sudan is currently classified in Famine, but I am interested in whether this changes.
A new question on Metaculus:
This is a binary YES/NO question.
Opens: May 17, 2026. Closes: October 31, 2026.
Background: The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scores acute food insecurity from Phase 1 (Minimal) to Phase 5. At the household level, Phase 5 is "Catastrophe"; an entire area is classified in Phase 5 ("Famine") only when extreme food deprivation occurs together with threshold levels of acute malnutrition and mortality. The IPC separately flags areas "at risk of Famine," a worst-case projection that, in its own words, "is not a new classification." Access and data constraints mean recent IPC Sudan products are Global Initiative Special Snapshots rather than full analyses. The Special Snapshot covering February 2026 through January 2027, published May 14, 2026, found nearly 19.5 million people (41 percent) in IPC Phase 3 or above and around 135,000 in Phase 5 at the household level, with no area currently classified in Famine. A risk of Famine was identified in 14 areas for the June to September 2026 lean season. Acute-malnutrition Famine thresholds have already been surpassed in Um Baru, Kernoi, and parts of At Tina in North Darfur, but those areas are not classified in Famine because insecurity and data gaps block the full evidence a classification requires. An unclassified famine is a live possibility in the worst-access areas, so the question turns on the IPC's ability to classify, not only on conditions on the ground.
Resolution criteria: This question resolves YES if either of the first two qualifying IPC Sudan acute food insecurity products classifies at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5) at the area level, for any analysis or projection period on or after June 1, 2026. A qualifying product is an IPC-produced Sudan product (a full IPC analysis, an IPC Global Initiative Special Snapshot, or an IPC Alert) published on ipcinfo.org after May 14, 2026, that makes area-level phase classifications covering any time on or after June 1, 2026. A formal projected Famine classification counts; an "at risk of Famine" flag and household-level Phase 5 population figures do not. A Famine call by either the IPC analysis team or the Famine Review Committee counts. It resolves NO if the first two qualifying products make the relevant classifications but neither classifies any area in Famine, or if only one qualifying product is published by December 31, 2026 and it classifies no area in Famine. If zero qualifying products are published by December 31, 2026, the question annuls.
I would appreciate your feedback and your forecasts.
Notes:
- Previous questions: (1) How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026? (2) Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025? (3) How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin? (4) Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? (5) Will Burhan and Hemedti be publicly confirmed to have met in person in 2026? (6) Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan-war excess mortality above 200,000? (7) Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid by each of three dry-season dates? (8) How many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt as of 31 August 2026?